Wealth over time
shaded: 5–95, 10–90, 25–75 percentile rangesChance the money runs out by age
Allocation — what you hold vs the plan target
inner ring: asset classes · outer ring: US sectors (fetch profiles in Holdings for look-through)Wealth at plan end, by percentile of outcomes
red = depleted · orange = below starting wealth · green = grewDistribution of final wealth
Annual spending under your rule
10th–90th percentile band and medianWhere the money sits — median balance by account
Find the right mix for your risk tolerance
Answer four questions (or set risk aversion directly), then scan every allocation of the four assets. Each mix is scored on the same simulated futures with a risk-adjusted score — the guaranteed amount you'd trade your uncertain outcome for — where running out of money hurts far more than a big surplus helps.
Taxes are on: every score includes the one-time capital-gains cost of moving from your current holdings to that mix, plus ongoing tax drag.
House plan included: rent, purchase and mortgage cash flows from the House tab are part of every score below.
Every allocation, scored — by cash level
★ recommended · ○ current · click any dot to adopt itDownside vs upside
dotted line = efficient frontierDynamic strategy — reallocate by age & wealth beta
Instead of one fixed mix, build a strategy that adapts: every five years it looks at your age and how much you actually have, and shifts the mix to whatever gives you the best risk-adjusted odds from there. Everything below is stress-tested on the same simulated futures and compared honestly against your current plan. Needs the fixed spending rule. Taxes are approximated while searching for the strategy; the comparison numbers below include them exactly.
Wealth over time — dynamic policy vs your current strategy
solid = median, dotted = 10th percentile; same simulated futures for both
What you’d actually hold over time
the policy reacts to how markets go — these lines follow the 10th/50th/90th percentile wealth paths
Full policy map (age × wealth)
When to buy a house, and for how much
Your plan's spending should include the rent you pay today — renting on is the baseline. Buying credits that rent back as a saving from the purchase year, and charges the down payment + closing costs, mortgage payments (a fixed nominal payment, so it shrinks in today's dollars as inflation runs) and carrying costs. Home equity builds separately from the portfolio — it shows on the Overview chart, but success below means the portfolio never runs dry. With taxes on, the down payment withdrawal pays its capital-gains bill too.
Outcomes by purchase age and price
★ your plan · click a cell to adopt it (or the “never” column to rent forever)Your wealth, account by account
A live snapshot of everything you own: securities lot by lot (with cost basis and optional purchase date), plus cash, CDs and treasuries with their interest rates. Name accounts whatever your brokerages call them. Unknown tickers default to US stocks — override the class in the table; target-date funds count as blends.
paste CSV (account, ticker, shares, cost basis, date)
New account names are created automatically (type guessed from the name — “Roth”, “IRA”, “401k”…). Ticker-first order also works. Fractional shares and cents are fine.
US sector exposure
look-through sector data per fund/stock, cached 1 yearActive weights vs the US market
Per-ticker profiles
sources: fetched (1-yr cache), built-in tables, or your manual overridesPortfolio checkup
Add holdings (and fetch profiles) to run the checkup.
Tax strategy
Where each asset belongs — derived, not assumed
Trade plan
estimates only — confirm lots, taxes and wash-sale windows with your brokerWealth over time — median (solid) and 10th percentile (dotted)
Chance of running out
Capital-market assumptions
Annual real log-return drift (μ) and volatility (σ). Epistemic σ is uncertainty about the true long-run drift itself: each simulated future draws its own persistent drift — futures where the past was a poor guide. Failure rate is the annual chance of a permanent regime change (war, confiscation, prolonged stagnation) after which the asset drifts at the failure μ ± σ forever. Income yield is the share of value distributed each year (dividends/coupons) — taxed annually in the taxable account when taxes are on, at capital-gains or ordinary rates per the “ordinary” flag.
Year-to-year shock correlation
Epistemic (long-run drift) correlation
US sector risk model
These price your sector tilts on the Holdings → Sectors view. Volatilities are annual; the correlation matrix captures how sectors move together: cyclicals cluster, defensives cluster, the two groups decouple. Rough long-run constants — edit freely.